A swing / position trading strategy (medium to long-term) where we will focus on industry trends, commodity trends and contrasting forex pairs.

This will be our most active strategy and is more considered trading then investing.

If you only want to passively invest you can only follow the DCA strategy and long-term strategy.

For every play we will make an in-depth report and have clear rules in place to limit losses but will give it enough room to move and prove our theories.

Current Positions

No block ID is set

Latest performance Report

No block ID is set

Why this strategy

When perfected this strategy will provide income and faster growth to our entire portfolio.

What we trade

Trending Industry Plays

Both emerging markets and industries that are trending up.

When an industry is (possibly) starting to trend we will make and in-depth report that analyses the whole sub-industry and the top companies in each layer.

If after the report an industry meets our standards we will enter multiple positions and hold for a medium to long-term period.

  • Stocks: Top in (sub)industry
  • Stocks: Recent IPOs (for emerging industry)
  • LEAPS (long term options)
  • industry ETF’s

Commodity Trend Plays

Look for recent upticks, check if they were down before and if the original reason for the down trend has passed.

  • Futures (grains, energies, metals, softs)
  • Stock: Source companies
    eg. mining, water supply, oil drilling, …
  • Stock: wholesale companies
    eg. water brands, gas brands / providers, …

Forex: Contrasting pairs

We will keep an eye on currencies that are starting to change trends, when it does we will pair opposites and stay in for a medium-term. We will only trade when good opportunities are presented, if not we wait.

  • Forex Lots
  • Currency Futures

Screening

Trending Sectors

  • Sector > Industry
    Look at industries performance in the past months. Check for a slowly growing on in the passed 6 months.
    ex:  1M (+7%), 3M (+15%), 6M (+12%)
  • Industry > sub-industry
    After finding a trending industry check which sub-industry is the mail cause.
  • IPO anomalies
    Check the industries of the new IPOs, this could be an indicator of new emerging sectors

Commodity Trends

  • Commodities 1M Performance
    Look for 1M +15% runners that were down trending before
  • Sector > Industry
    Same principles as for “trending sector”

Forex

  • Highest / Weakest Performers
    Make report on each to form a pair

Overall screening

  • General news
    Read news and stay up to date of new trends in the market.

Requirements

PreferredÂ

  • Products
    Companies have something to sell, something that can scale (hardware, food brands, devices, applications, …)
  • Tech Sector
    Technology always tends to grow faster of have new emerging industries within.
  • Mid, Large and Mega-cap
    More stable then small and micro-cap. Exceptions can be made for new emerging industries.

Unpreferred

  • Service based
    Companies that are purely service based have to scale up workforce in order to grow, will be slow and tough to manage.
  • Biotech & Pharma
    Research and clinical trials for products are risky to invest in.

Reporting

Industry Reports

  • Current Trend Analyses
    Is there a trend? Outlook and impact.
  • Sector Layers (hierarchy)
    See if the industry is made from different layers. Check which are best to invest in.
    e.g. Hardware > Cloud computing > Models > Applications
  • Top Players
    Who are the players profiting most from the current trend. The top companies for each layer.
  • TOP IPOs
    New companies that bring innovation to the industry.

Company Reports

  • DCF Valuation
    Discounted cash flow determines if an investment can be worthwhile, even without a trend.
  • Past Performance
    Steady price action, increased volume. Did it trend in the past?
  • Competitors
    How do they compare to their peers.
  • Future Outlook
    Does the company have something unique to offer that competitors cant.

Commodity Report

  • Reason for past / current downtrend
  • Reasons for recent spike
  • Outlook

Forex Report

  • Individually check currencies
    Countries with top performing index, top performing currency pair
  • Turning points
    Government debt, consumer debt, interest rates, …
    Move forward whit currencies where majority of turning points are hit
  • Pair 2 opposites

Update Reports

Update reports regularly to see if our play is still on track.

Indicators & Signals

Price Action

Stable growth over time without huge drops (unless it’s connected a a market-wide drop).

Volume

Increased volume over time.

Trading Guidelines

Pilot Buy

  • BUY 2/5 position

Add to Position

  • ADD 1/5 position when breaking trough a resistance (3 times or more if budget available)

Stop-Loss

  • SET manually 10% below a support
  • MOVE UP below broken resistances (wide range)

Take-Profit / Exit

We will get out when de trend is dying or it never started to trend.

  • Moves sideways
  • Volume decreasing
  • Bad outlook (after report update, ..)

Position Budget

Set budget per play, divided over the total positions we will hold inside each play.
Same amount for each position (and same budget per play) for consistency and safety.

Forex budget will be the same as the budget per industry play.

Positions count

Detailed reporting will determine how many different positions we will hold per industry play.

  • Less then 7 per industry
    Good play could look like 2 top players, 1 recent IPO, 1 industry ETF, 2 in lower layer of industry (build up over weeks / months)
  • Less then 3 different industry plays

Leverage

  • 2x Margin
    Since we keep a close eye on things and only stay in as long as its trending.
  • Options
    Small portion of our portfolio, only for the most promising stocks.
  • Forex leverage: 10x

Duration

Weeks, months up to a year on average. We stay in until SL or TP / Exit requirements are hit.

Its very likely that some stocks transfer over to our long-term (buy and hold) strategy, especially for new emerging markets. In that strategy we will regularly add to the position.

Weekly review + updates

We will keep a close eye on our positions and make adjustments where needed.